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In the present study, we use data from the RHC only. Most of the selected respondents who were not interviewed either could not be located or did not have the time to complete the survey.

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Our second analytic sample is used to examine predictors of sexual debut. Because sexual debut starts at young ages in Kisumu, we begin our survival analysis of first sex at exact age ten.

Nonetheless, nine of our respondents had their first sexual experience before the age of ten and were removed from our analysis. Another three respondents were removed because they did not report a date of first sex.

Dating, Sex, and Schooling in Urban Kenya

Survival Analysis Models To assess both school dropout and sexual debut, we use piecewise exponential survival analysis. Within each of these time periods, the transition rates are assumed to be constant, but the transition rates can differ between time periods. Because we analyze the outcomes for men and women separately, we create separate piecewise exponential models that best fit their specific survival functions.

For our analyses, ties are especially problematic if the respondent reports having had his or her first sexual experience and completed or dropped out of secondary school in the same month. These results demonstrate that many transitions to adulthood occur in rapid succession, rendering annual measures of these events inadequate to capture the temporal order.

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Nonetheless, although monthly measures result in fewer ties, respondents may have difficulty remembering events with precision. Overall, we find few differences in these lagged models, although we highlight the one potentially important difference in our discussion of the results below.

To further explore whether recall bias may be affecting our results, we include controls for the age of the respondent at the time of the interview in all of our models. Older respondents, however, had to remember events in the more distant past. On average, respondents reported having their first sexual encounter five years before the survey and leaving school three years before the survey.

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Because of high rates of grade repetition and temporary absences from school, however, students often take longer to complete secondary school. Thus, in our schooling analyses, respondents are observed until they complete secondary school or drop out of school. If they are currently enrolled, they are last observed at the time of the survey.

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We also account for whether, and if so when, the respondent has become a maternal, paternal, or double orphan. We follow the example of other studies that have attempted to mitigate this problem by using current measures of household assets Mensch et al.